By Andrew Warshaw in Cape Town
December 2 - Early yesterday evening in Johannesburg, Ruud Gullit, one of Holland’s most famous footballing ambassadors, shook his head in disbelief at rumours that Holland would not be seeded at next year’s World Cup finals.
Less than 24 hours later after flying into Cape Town, Gullit got off his plane and was a relieved man after hearing that his country had, after all, made the top eight teams.
The fall-guys, as it quickly became known, were France.
Punished, it seemed, the infamous “Hand of Henry” that had broken Irish hearts in the play-offs.
Not so, insisted the FIFA hierarchy.
The selection of the top eight countries for Friday’s draw had been made on purely sporting criteria.
Even though, for the first time, only the rankings had been used instead of past World Cup performances.
And even though it was the October rankings – and not the latest ones – on which FIFA made their decision.
“In the past the seedings have been determined by a mixture of world rankings and performances in past World Cups but this time the feeling was the October rankings most closely represented the best teams in the tournament,” explained FIFA general secretary Jerome Valcke.
“We made the decision last month that the October rankings would be used because they were fairer.
“Countries which had been involved in the play-offs would have had an unfair advantage because they would have played more games and that affects their rankings.
“France qualified after additional matches and were not even first in their group.
“Why should playing more matches and gaining more points kick out England who qualified with a good campaign?
“We used purely sporting criteria.
“France-Ireland was never part of the discussions.”
Whether or not you believe Valcke (pictured) - and there will be millions of French conspiracy theorists – FIFA were spot on.
The world governing body is often rightly criticised for being either short-sighted or over-cautious.
Not this time.
The bottom line is that FIFA had to find a way – any way – of placating advocates of fair play.
The cynics will say they decided first on an outcome and then on a formula to bring it about.
But consider the facts.
Using the October rankings makes perfect sense – and not only because England would have been unseeded otherwise.
FIFA wanted to use a strategy that put all teams on a level playing field.
Factoring in the November rankings would have given the play-offs teams two extra games to move up the ladder – as France thought they had.
Ignoring how well teams had done in previous World Cups was a totally unexpected but worthy decision.
Holland are ranked third in the world and were the first team from Europe to qualify for next summer’s finals.
Yet had previous World Cup form been used, the Dutch would have been the ones to give way to France.
And that, too, would have been unfair.
The host country South Africa plus Brazil, Spain, Italy, Germany and Argentina were named as the other seeds alongside Holland and England.
What it all means of course is that France could easily be drawn on Friday against another major European football power.
Raymond Domenech’s under-performing side may not deserve to be seeded on recent performances but they will still be the most dangerous floater.
There will be four pots in Friday’s draw – one containing the top seeds, the second with countries from Asia, Oceania and North/Central America, the third with the five other African nations and three South American countries, and a fourth pot with the other eight European countries.
England manager Fabio Capello will be glad that his side will avoid the real big hitters such as Spain and Brazil but will be acutely aware that England could still end up in a tough group.
All kinds of scenarios could take place at 7pm local time Friday and you could almost feel the tension with 24 hours to go.
Until then, the main talking point will not be about the eight teams that have been seeded – but about the one that had not.
Contact the writer of this story at zib.l1734796486labto1734796486ofdlr1734796486owedi1734796486sni@w1734796486ahsra1734796486w.wer1734796486dna1734796486.
Pot 1 (seeds)
South Africa, Brazil, Spain, Holland, Italy, Germany, Argentina, England.
Pot 2 (Asia, Oceania and North/Central America)
Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Mexico, Honduras.
Pot 3 (Africa and South America)
Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria, Paraguay, Chile, Uruguay.
Pot 4 (Europe)
France, Portugal, Slovenia, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia, Denmark, Slovakia.