By David Gold
May 13 – Following Barcelona and Manchester United’s progression into the European Champions League final earlier this month, the Professional Football Players Observatory (PFPO) has successfully predicted almost 80 per cent of the knockout games during this season’s competition.
PFPO predict the relative strength of teams using four main criteria; experience of their players in Champions League games, quality in terms of their recent international performances (taking into account the strength of their national side), squad stability and results obtained during the tournament’s group stages.
As a result of this model, Barcelona have a rating of 100, given that the bulk of its current squad have been playing together for many years, winning the Champions League in 2006 and 2009, as well as forming the nucleus of the Spain side which is currently both the World Cup and European champions.
Manchester United are the next highest on 98, and they will have appeared in three of the last four Champions League finals, winning the tournament in 2008, after the end of this month’s final.
FC Copenhagen were rated lowest with a score of just one, and the billing appeared justified as they were easily brushed aside by Chelsea in the second round.
The games that the organisation predicted incorrectly were the second round ties between Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma, which the Ukrainians won, and Schalke and Valencia, which the Germans came through.
Schalke defied the predictor in the quarter finals too, and in style as they beat Inter Milan 7-3 on aggregate, despite being rated almost seven times weaker than their opponents.
Though the formula has been largely successful this season, its predictions could have been more erratic in previous campaigns.
In 2003-4 for example, Monaco, Chelsea and Deportivo La Coruna caused surprises at the quarter final stage when they beat Real Madrid, Arsenal and AC Milan respectively.
Chelsea then lost in the semi-finals that season, despite on paper appearing the strongest of the final four.
And in 2005 Liverpool, who had not participated in Europe’s leading club competition since 1991, won the European Cup against the odds, beating theoretically stronger teams in Juventus, Chelsea and AC Milan on their way.
If Barcelona win this year’s final against Manchester United later this month the predictor will have an 80 per cent success rate.
The final is a repeat of the 2009 showpiece, when Barcelona out-played their English rivals to win 2-0 and lift their third Champions League trophy.
Contact the writer of this story at zib.l1734800604labto1734800604ofdlr1734800604owedi1734800604sni@d1734800604log.d1734800604ivad1734800604