.jpg)
One is rarely quite 100 percent sure with FIFA.
But it now looks like Joseph Blatter will get the go-ahead on Wednesday to extend his stint in the governing body’s top seat to 17 years.
Unless 75 percent of the organisation’s 208 member associations vote down the congressional agenda, it is hard to see what can stop the ‘election’ from going ahead, in spite of a campaign that has achieved the seemingly impossible by turning FIFA into even more of an international laughing-stock than it was before.
Many will consequently see this as the hollowest of victories.
And, indeed, the man from Visp is likely to spend long stretches of his fourth term as President battling to restore the body’s tattered credibility.
But one very important thing has now changed that might yet prompt Blatter to emerge, contrary to expectations, as a figure capable of reversing FIFA’s slide.
This is that 2011-15 will be the 75-year-old’s final term in office.
For the first time, therefore, he will no longer have to worry about re-election.
Up until now, he has always had to be mindful that if he upset any of football’s big regional power-brokers, he might live to regret it when the time came to seek another term.
For a man who I think would be lost without his job, that strikes me as a pretty powerful deterrent and has made him a weaker leader than he might otherwise have been.
Now he should be freer to do what he thinks is best.
And since I believe he also craves global recognition for his achievements during 36 years at FIFA, I would expect the nature of his legacy to be a near constant preoccupation of these last four years.
Yes I know it is probably stretching credulity to portray this ageing and rather pompous insider as the man who can guide FIFA back to credibility.
And it is clearly possible that more problems may come out of the woodwork.
But I think if there was material likely to be personally damaging to him, it would have emerged by now.
And while I suspect colleagues and readers may disagree, Blatter has never struck me as especially interested in self-enrichment.
I think, by contrast, that CONCACAF head Jack Warner’s period as a powerful force in world football may be nearly over.
He insists he is “not guilty of a single iota of wrongdoing”.
Even so, I would not be surprised to see him concentrate more and more heavily on politics in his native Trinidad and Tobago.
As for Mohamed Bin Hammam – who has vowed to “clear my name from the baseless allegations that have been made against me” – I am not so sure.
Once his final term is secured, I would be less than amazed to see Blatter act with relative magnanimity towards the man who dared to challenge him.
I am far from convinced then that the Qatari’s time as an influential member of world football’s top table is at an end, particularly with the World Cup due to be hosted by his home country in 2022.
I would think, though, that his hopes of succeeding Blatter as top dog have probably been dashed.
The man for the moment left looking every inch the real future of FIFA is Michel Platini.
While Bin Hammam was preparing his statement of withdrawal, the Frenchman was in London presiding over a dream season’s finale for his Confederation, UEFA.
He even had the satisfaction of seeing the European Cup lifted by a compatriot, Eric Abidal.
For the time being, then, the future is looking rosy for the former French captain.
Quite what the big clubs will make of this, though, if he remains in pole position as the next FIFA Pesidential election approaches in 2015, remains to be seen.
Indeed, we may spend much of the next four years writing about it.
David Owen worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2010 World Cup. Owen’s Twitter feed can be accessed at www.twitter.com/dodo938