Deloitte predict reduced Premier League transfer activity in January

By Andrew Warshaw

December 31 – Top-flight English clubs look set to spend cautiously in the upcoming January transfer window according to the football finance experts Deloitte.

Premier League clubs could actually end up forking out less than half of last season’s record £225 million ($348 million/€269 million) total because of a number of factors, most notably UEFA’s financial fair play (FFP) rules.

With both anxious to secure a Champions League spot, Chelsea have been linked with a new defender – Bolton Wanderers’ Gary Cahill is thought to be a target – and Liverpool with a new striker during the month-long window that opens at midnight on Saturday.

But Deloitte doubts there will be any massive outlays of cash such as the £50 million ($77.4 million/€59.8 million) paid a year ago by Chelsea for Fernando Torres and the £35 million ($54.2 million/€49.2 million) Liverpool spent on Andy Carroll (pictured below with Liverpool manager Kenny Dalglish).

Dan Jones, a partner in Deloitte, said: “We would be surprised … if gross spending was more than 2011 given that was a record year by some margin.

“Neither do we expect spending to fall to anywhere near as low as the 2010 levels of £30 million ($46.5 million/€35.9 million) in January.

“The most likely scenario is somewhere between the 2008 and 2009 levels of circa £170 million ($263.3 million/€203.5 million) and the 2004-07 mark of around £50-£60 million ($77.4 million/€59.8 million – $93 million/€71.7 million) – ie, say £100-£140 million ($154.9 million/€119.6 million – $216.9 million/€167.4 million).”

Jones added: “While football is certainly not immune to the wider economy, it is more the smaller football economy that really matters with the following factors of relevance.

“With FFP we are now half [a] year into the first period that will count to the first assessment – clubs will have to be carefully evaluating how transfer activity will impact on their financial results both from a transfer trading perspective but also impact on player wages and ins and outs.

“All other things being equal you would expect FFP to have a dampening impact.

“Then there are TV rights: the Premier League will be going to the market for the domestic rights first, and then the overseas rights in 2012, both for the 2013-14 season.

“So depending on how clubs view the likely size of those deals it could influence their transfer thinking.

“And there are exchange rates, one aspect that does feed direct from the wider economy.

“If the Euro weakened significantly against the pound then European players may be better value again.”

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