By Mark Baber
June 13 – The CIES Football Observatory has published the 2013 edition of its Annual Review analysing an eclectic mix of statistics, based on data from OPTAPro on the ‘Big 5’ leagues of Europe – the Premier League, Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A.
The headline figures from the report have to be the player valuations created by the model used.
On the basis of their model the authors estimate Messi has a value of between €217 and €252 million, compared to €102-118 million for Cristiano Ronaldo, whilst the total team value of Barcelona is in terms of player economic value is estimated as €658 million, Europe’s highest.
The first chapter of the publication compares leagues finding that there has been an increase in differential in points between clubs over the last ten years and the French league is the most boring in terms of shots and goals.
The second chapter looks at clubs, comparing the ages of players, length of contract and pitch performance. A new performance algorithm is applied to the data giving rise to new indicators of team performance including attacking incisiveness, grip on the game and defensive solidity.
Bayern Munich is unique among league champions in coming top for all these indicators in its League. Whilst Juventus and Paris-St Germain outranked their rivals in defense, Manchestrer United’s superiority was based on attacking incisiveness. In all the leagues examined there was a close correlation between transfer spending and on-pitch success.
The third chapter looks at individual players in terms of shooting ability, chance creation, take on, distribution and recovery. Messi is the most ‘decisive’ player of the 2012-13 season, outranking Frank Ribery and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Finally the fourth chapter attempts to gauge the “economic value” of players using a statistical model based on player performance data. Ambitiously the authors, Raffaele Poll, Loic Ravenel and Roger Besson expect this to “whet the appetite of club officials, agents, journalists, bankers, investors, courts etc.”
The full publication is available for download electronically from http://shop.cies.ch/ch_en/catalog/category/view/id/8?___from_store=ch_fr.
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