By Ben Nicholson
July 1 – The CIES Football Observatory has developed what it believes is a “groundbreaking player transfer value calculator” for those based in the big-5 league clubs. They say that their algorithm improves economic transparency – enabling clubs, players and fans alike to compare how much is paid for a player to how much ought to have been.
The econometrical model has been created by analysing nearly 1,500 fee paying transfers from the past five years at big-5 league clubs (Spain, England, Germany, France and Italy).
It takes into account the player’s age, length of contract remaining, position, player performance in the last two years (down to the nitty gritty of minutes played and interceptions made to the more evident goals and assists), player’s team’s results, as well as international experience and performance.
The methodology nods to past trends to predict future outcomes by looking at players with similar characteristics and seeing what market value they achieved and translating that into a current estimate for their doppelganger. CIES have not disclosed all of the information that they have used to create their algorithm, and so the weighting and perhaps more subtle factors will not be available for the time being.
However, parties with specific interest are encouraged to contact the group if they are looking for information that pertains to “transfer negotiations and contract policies both from risk and asset management perspectives”. Their annual review will be published this month, detailing in greater depth their findings.
The estimated most expensive player is Lionel Messi, purportedly worth €200.2-232.6 million, followed by Cristiano Ronaldo at €105.7-122.9 million and Luis Suarez at €98.5-114.5 million, whose stock may have decreased thanks to recent events. It is unsure whether CIES have a ‘partial to biting opponents’ factor in its algorithm but it could depreciate his expected value.
If the values are correct, all three of these players have the chance to break Gareth Bale’s record transfer fee of €91 million. Bale, is now calculated as being worth significantly less than when he was bought, coming in the region of €58.4-67.8 million.
The youngest player on the top 60 list is Southampton-trained England starlet Luke Shaw, who was estimated to be worth €28.5-€33.1 million. This is close to the reported £30 million (roughly €37.5 million given current exchange rates) that Manchester United actually paid for the player, thus proving that the credentials of the model.
The player transfer value calculator is available online through the CIES website.
In the “Big-5 Weekly Post”, which is also available online, there is the list of most over-paid for players and most under-paid for players from recent transfers. The former list shames the purchasing club whilst the latter shames the selling. All the while the player is likely grinning about their financial gains.
David Luiz tops the list, having his talents over-estimated by €19.5 million. It seems then that Chelsea can be pleased with the £50 million they exchanged for him. FC Barcelona stand accused of doing poor business, paying €8 million too much for Chilean goalkeeping sensation Claudio Bravo and €7.1 million too much for the Croatian Ivan Rakitic.
The most under-paid transfers see smaller marginal gains than the most over-paid saw marginal losses, indicating that human willingness to get what one wants can lead to inflated prices. Bayer Leverkusen paid €3.8 million less for Hosip Drnić than he is worth, SS Lazio paid €2.8 million less for Antonio Candreva, and AC Fiorentina saved €2.1 million on Juan Cuadrado.
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