By Mark Baber
January 14 – The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) Football Observatory has published its first monthly report aimed at illuminating the reasons for and consequences of club instability at European level.
The report’s authors present evidence showing a link between instability of squads (measured by numbers of new signings and average length of stay) and performance (measured by League position), going on to claim, with somewhat less authority, that instability is a cause of poor performance and that stability gives clubs a competitive advantage over rival teams, be it on a sporting level (better medium and long-term results) or an economic one (a greater capacity to launch careers of club-trained players and generating revenues through their transfer).
Analysis of the data since 2009 shows that the number of footballers recruited during the year across all the clubs analysed rose from 36.6% in 2009 to 41.5 in 2013 and has remained the same in 2014. According to the report authors this means “the footballers’ labour market tends towards greater mobility and club stability decreases in parallel.”
Dividing clubs up into Eastern, Southern, Northern and Western areas, the authors find the percentage of new signings is considerably higher in Eastern (48.5%) and Southern Europe (45.5%) than in Northern (31.2%) and Western Europe (35.9%) which the authors suggest is not due to strategies of increasing revenues. They suggest that “From an economic point of view, according to numerous accounts, transfer operations tend rather to benefit intermediaries that are at the heart of transactions, as well as the club managers and coaches with whom they collaborate.”
Comparing instability of squads to position in either the top or bottom half of each table across Europe shows the better ranked teams recruited on average 38.5% of their squad during the year, while this percentage was 43.8% for the lower ranked clubs.
According to the authors this demonstrates that “over-activity on the transfer market not only offers no economic advantage, but also has a negative impact in sporting terms. The consequences of such a policy tend to be counterproductive in the long run. “
Further evidence of a link between numbers of new signings and performance lies in the finding the probability of relegation is twice as high as for clubs having signed between 11 and 15 players (17%) and three times higher than teams with a maximum of ten new recruits (10.6%).
Unsurprisingly the authors state that there is a negative correlation between percentage of new signings and proportion of club-trained footballers in the squad and suggest this “is indicative” of a lack of strategic planning and a neglect of player training.
According to the CEIS research the most stable clubs in Europe in terms of average length of stay in the first team squad (in years) are;
1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (ESP) 5.26
2. CSKA Moskva (RUS) 4.91
3. Fenerbahçe SK (TUR) 4.41
4. Real Madrid CF (ESP) 4.32
5. Athletic Club Bilbao (ESP) 4.25
6. FC Barcelona (ESP) 4.04
7. Atvidabergs FF (SWE) 4.00
8. Borussia Dortmund (GER) 3.89
9. FC Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) 3.89
10. FC Bayern München (GER) 3.88
Based on their conclusions the authors suggest regulatory restrictions on transfers may be a good idea. However, whilst there is clearly a link between instability and performance, whether this is a direct causal one, as the authors claim, is a matter of debate.
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