October 7 – It has been a busy week for Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho and the latest analysis by the CIES Football Observatory will not have helped his mood.
After the weekend loss to Southampton Mourinho went on a 7-minute TV interview rant suggesting that referees are “afraid to give decisions to Chelsea”, and challenging the management of Chelsea to sack him.
The result is a misconduct charge from the FA and a statement of “full support” from Roman Abramovich and the Chelsea board. Full support that might not be so fulsome as they review the CIES ranking of the Premier League clubs that, based on league performance, made the best transfer buys in the last transfer window.
Chelsea come in a full 13 positions below their expected ranking. In contrast Leicester City rank 12 positions above their expected ranking.
The ranking methodology naturally skews towards the smaller clubs and perhaps should not be taken as a statistical measure to run a club’s business. A club like Manchester City, who spent significantly in the transfer window, are ranked top. So the best they can ever do is actually to match their number one slot prediction – which they are currently doing.
Chelsea are predicted to rank third and on this ranking – and in everyone’s opinion – are clearly underperforming. In contrast a club that has a much lower predicted ranking – like Leicester – can more easily improve their ranking position.
It seems that across all the big leagues in Europe the little guys are punching above their weight. CIES points out that the highest over-achievers with respect to transfer investments are Eibar (+10 positions), Angers (+17), Ingolstadt (+11) and Chievo (+8).
In contrast the teams, along with Chelsea, that currently ranked well below the position where their financial power should have allowed them to be are Real Sociedad (-11 positions), Marseille (-13), Stuttgart (-8) and Juventus (-11).
Source: All tables CIES Football Observatory
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