We may be heading towards a tipping-point in the globalisation of football. Actually, that is not quite exact: we may be heading towards a tipping-point in the Europeanisation of world football culture. What I have in mind is the point when the big European leagues – Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A – start to earn more from international rights to broadcast their matches than domestic rights.
Given the growing international diversity of the main dramatis personae of the elite European game, from club owners to players, and the vast difference in potential eyeball count between a) the respective domestic markets of England, Germany, Spain and Italy and b) the rest of the planet, it should not be particularly surprising that this prospect is hoving into view on the horizon.
Recent devclopments in China and Spain make it possible, moreover, that the moment may come rather sooner than one might once have imagined.
The belated opening up of the Chinese market, assuming for now that there is no Governmental U-turn, not only makes European football content more valuable in a vast market of 1.3 billion people with a fast-expanding middle class, it may also lead to more Chinese media companies entering auctions for football rights in other countries. There was an example of this recently when China’s Letv won exclusive Premier League broadcasting rights in Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, the aggressive international sales push recently embarked on by La Liga, in the wake of Spain’s adoption of the collective rights-selling model used by other big European leagues has already had fairly dramatic results. After raising less than half as much as the league’s domestic broadcasting rights last season, international rights will this term outstrip their domestic counterparts – by €650 million to €600 million. With a new domestic rights auction approaching, this will almost certainly be a temporary state of affairs. But I would see it as the shape of things to come in Spain and elsewhere nonetheless.
The question is: What does the geographic diversification of one of the big European leagues’ main revenue streams portend for European football and European football fans?
Some things seem fairly clear. We can anticipate more and more pre-season tournaments in the most lucrative international markets in North America and Asia, perhaps even short mid-season tours when the calendar permits. Kick-off times are similarly likely to become ever more exotic and variable for local spectators. La Liga sometimes now has matches in 10 different time-slots over the weekend. “In Asia, you shouldn’t have to watch our great games at 3am,” as La Liga President Javier Tebas asserted recently.
The extent and pace of more fundamental changes may depend on whether the leagues’ most deep-pocketed broadcast partners all begin to clamour for the same things, or by contrast pursue different priorities. If the latter, the preferences and convenience of the leagues’ domestic fans will probably hold sway for longer.
One change that I can see coming relatively early in the internationalisation process would be of massive interest to locally-based European football fans. Ironically, it would entail a revamp of the format of the Champions League.
In Western Europe, while most football fans would take an interest in El Clásico, say, or the Manchester derby, their prime focus of attention is likely to be their local club and domestic league. In the likes of China or Indonesia, competition among the four European leagues is likely to be much more direct.
Given that even quite ardent football fans can only watch so many live broadcasts in a weekend, one can imagine that Asian viewers would have a markedly greater propensity to cherry-pick, prioritising perhaps the Milan derby one week and Bayern versus Borussia the next. This will partly depend on how matches and leagues are packaged and whether multiple subscriptions are necessary to pick and choose in this manner. But it seems a logical enough way in which to expect keen Asian fans of European football to behave.
In a recent presentation, La Liga’s Tebas seemed to assume that the biggest club names would indeed be the biggest draws. The Premier League, he said, “sells four magnificent movies” in a weekend. La Liga, he continued, sells two – presumably Real Madrid and Barcelona and their respective adversaries – “although we are working to make the two into three” and “we have managed it, more or less”.
There seems relatively little, bar helping to lift the international fan-base of as many of their own clubs as possible, that national leagues can do to counter such behaviour. Tebas spoke of augmenting production levels and trying to make sure viewers know they have tuned into La Liga, and not some other league, the moment they have switched on the TV. Especially in Asia though, many viewers will be accessing games on other mobile devices and will presumably know very well what they are meaning to watch.
There might be little that national leagues can do. But what a great opportunity for UEFA to exploit this global demand for titanic European football clashes by rejigging the Champions League.
They could, in essence, stand the present format on its head, beginning with knockout rounds and getting down to an extended group stage involving la crème de la crème by Christmas. A six- or eight-team mini-league in which all played all home and away should ensure that scarcely a week went by without a couple of clashes involving the very biggest names in European football that would be any marketing exec’s dream.
There is no reason why you could not retain the final, pitting the top two finishers against each other in a winner-takes-all showdown. Or you could stage a play-off between second and third for the right to challenge the mini-league champion.
Clubs missing out on the final group stage could have their own post-Christmas competition that would be much less lucrative outside Europe, but still a big draw within.
Those outside the European super-elite would probably dig in their heels and fight any such restructuring. And it seems much more of a stretch to imagine that Champions League rights could be worth more outside Europe than inside. But if we know one thing about elite-level football it is that money talks. If the potential rewards of screening more frequent clashes between the footballing aristocrats of Europe are deemed substantial enough, sooner or later it is likely to happen.
David Owen worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 World Cup and London 2012. Owen’s Twitter feed can be accessed at www.twitter.com/dodo938.