January 19 – Stoke City are the most ‘efficient’ team in Europe’s Big 5 leagues, according to the latest data from the CIES Football Observatory. PSG are beaten into third place in the ranking by Villareal, while Manchester United are placed fifth.
The data analyses “the ability of teams to achieve the highest number of points with respect to their levels of grip on the game and dangerousness”, says the CIES.
‘Grip on the game’ refers to the number and location of passes achieved compared to opponents; dangerousness is the ratio between the number and quality of shots attempted and conceded.
CIES says the maths works as follows: “The average value between grip on the game and dangerousness results in a composite indicator which allows us measuring the level of dominance of teams and estimating in an objective way the number of points that a club should have obtained accordingly. The comparison between points estimated and achieved permits us highlighting the most and least efficient teams.”
So taking Stoke as the example “with a dominance of 0.53, the Premier League team should have obtained 0.72 points per match, which is 0.78 less than it was actually the case.”
CIES says that the data points to Bayern Munich as favourites for the Champions League and Napoli for the Europa League. Manchester City are favourites for the Premier League table ahead of Leicester and Arsenal.
These predictions are taken from the dominance ranking below:
Dominance ranking
1) Bayern Munich 4.02
2) Naples 3.06
3) Paris St-Germain 2.14
4) Manchester City 2.11
5) Dortmund 2.10
6) Barcelona 2.00
7) Fiorentina 1.89
8) Real Madrid 1.87
9) Juventus 1.68
10) Atlético Madrid 1.66
11) Leicester 1.64
12) Arsenal 1.59
Efficiency ranking
Source: CIES Football Observatory
To view the full Efficiency ranking go to http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2015/133/en/
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