February 8 – The Jonjo Shelvey transfer showed €14.9 million of value to Newcastle, but they overpaid by €7 million for Andros Townsend, according to the latest report from the CIES Football Observatory.
Newcastle are one of five English clubs who significantly overpaid for players, according to CIES analysis, alongside Bournemouth, Norwich, Sunderland and Watford.
The football research group has released stats that compare fees paid to sign players in the Big-5 league clubs against CIES’s own player valuations based on its algorithm.
In 34 cases out of 49, the gap between the sum paid for the player and the CIES estimate of his transfer value was less than €2 million – a correlation between fees paid and predicted of 76%. The CIES algorithm is created from the analysis of more than 1,500 paying fee transfers recorded since 2010.
Generally the study shows that clubs pay over their CIES valuation rather than below it, perhaps highlighting the degree of panic in the January transfer which sees clubs desperately trying to plug holes in squads for the second half of the season. CIES say the inflation in transfer costs compared to the 11 previous transfer windows was 28%.
The biggest over payers according to the figures are from China. Top of the list is Jackson Martínez whose €42 million fee paid by Gunagzhou Evergrande was €23.8 million over the CIES valuation. Chelsea’s fee received for Ramires comes second, with Jiangsu Suning paying €10.8 million more than his CIES valuation.
The full list can be seen at http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2015/136/en/
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