February 17 – A new statistical model calculating the number of points clubs will have at the end of the season is predicting that the domestic long reigns of Juventus, PSG and Barca/Real Madrid will be over this season.
The model, developed by the CIES Football Observatory, looks at club performance in 22 leagues across Europe, taking into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded, ball possession, as well as teams’ own passes and those of opponents in the opposite third of the pitch.
The CIES data finds that “Inter Milan would be crowned Italian champions 11 years after their last title, ahead of Milan AC (+2 points) and Juventus (+3). The biggest surprise would come from France, where Olympique Lyonnais would total 82 points, one more than Paris St-Germain. In Spain, Atlético Madrid would have to fight up until the end of the season against Barcelona (+3 points).”
In Germany the old order should remain unchanged with Bayern Munich on top, while the emergence of Liverpool after 17 years without a Premier League title will still see them third in the table but ceding position to north west rivals Manchester City and United. Chelsea would take the fourth and Champions League qualifying spot.
The stats also point to Brentford winning promotion to the Premier League for the first time, alongside bounce-back specialists Norwich.
Click here to see the full stats.
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