November 9 – In an analysis that will surprise few observers, data scientists from KU Leuven have calculated that Brazil have a one in five chance to win the World Cup, confirming their status as top favourites in Qatar.
The Seleçāo has a 21% chance to prevail at the first World Cup in the Middle East. Brazil last won the World Cup in 2002, but this time the South Americans should be well equipped to bring the cup home according to Leuven’s supercomputer, which points to the attacking wealth of the team.
Tite left Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino home, but can still count on Neymar, Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, Rodrygo, Gabriel Martinelli, Antony, Gabriel Jesus and Richarlison.
The study used the recent results (Elo-rating) of the 32 finalists as well as the market value of each starting XI to calculate the strength of the teams. Monte-Carlo simulations were then applied to estimate probabilities for reaching the different stages in the tournament for all teams.
Spain has a 17% chance of winning, followed in third place by Argentina with 11% and reigning champions France in fourth place with 9%.
On social media, researcher Pieter Robberechts explained: “So what does a prediction that ‘Brazil will win the World Cup with 21% chance’ really mean? It actually means that there are a lot more scenarios in which Brazil will NOT win due to random factors such as the form of the day, injuries, … or pure luck.”
“A great quote attributed to the statistician George Box is: ‘All models are wrong but some models are useful’. Predictive models have many great applications, but their predictions should be taken with a wisp of sensible scepticism.”
And Belgium? They have a 6% chance of winning the World Cup. In 2018, the Belgians finished third.
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