June 25 – After the finish of Groups A and B there are now eight teams qualified for the last 16 going into group C and D tonight.
Germany, Switzerland, Spain and Italy have already qualified as group A and B top two finishers, while Portugal with six points are though to the next round.
With a minimum of 4 points and a worst case scenario of finishing in third place, England, Netherlands and France are all guaranteed a place in the last 16.
It is the action around the third place finishers that is currently carrying multiple last 16 qualification permutations.
Any team in the remaining groups that finishes in 3rd place with 4 points is guaranteed to finish in the top 4 best 3rd place rankings.
Other teams that could still finish in 3rd place in their groups (aside from those already qualified) with 4 points are: Group C – Serbia, Group D – Austria or Poland, Group E – Romania, Belgium or Slovakia, Group F – Turkey. Note, in some groups 4 points will secure second spot.
Where it gets really interesting is for teams that finish with three points and there is even still a chance for Croatia, with two points, to qualify if results go their way.
Five teams could end up with 3 points meaning one of those teams will go out and Croatia would definitely be out.
In Group A, Hungary are in 3rd place with 3 points. In Group C, Slovenia and Denmark could finish in 3rd place with 3 points, in Group D, the 3rd placed team will have at least 3 points and Austria and Poland are at risk here.
In Group E, the 3rd place team will also have at least 3 points and with all four teams in three points, all are at risk – Romania, Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine.
There are three teams that have or could finish in third place with two points. One of those three teams would qualify for the last 16.
In Group B Croatia have already done so. In Group C Slovenia could finish in 3rd place with 2 points if England beat them. Denmark and Serbia could also finish on two points depending on the outcome of their match.
In Group F Czechia could also finish with 2 points.
A big win for England over Slovenia would improve Croatia’s chances of staying in the competition, if other results went their way.
Simple really.
Contact the writer of this story, Helen Cracknell, at moc.l1719599098labto1719599098ofdlr1719599098owedi1719599098sni@o1719599098fni1719599098