August 6 – With the summer transfer window in full swing and some big name player deals still to be done, the outcomes are inevitably down to negotiation, but what is the true value of a player?
A new player valuation tool, the ETV (Estimated Transfer Value), developed by SciSports and FootballTransfers over the past five years uses a proprietary algorithm to calculate football player transfer values and find that realistic number.
The data is backed by the tracking 630,000 historical transfers and 220,000 players, and a myriad of key metrics as ranking factors including: Skill, Potential, Recent performance, Level of competition, Contract duration, Position and Age.
Valuations are available for more than 240,000 players in over 250 leagues worldwide with about 30 clubs already using the algorithm.
Football Transfers’ Paul Macdonald who co-developed ETV with Scisports, said: “Whether a club is desperate or not in the transfer market is impossible to quantify with data; teams can look to offload players to get their wages off the books, or to simply fund a purchase in another position.
“What ETV looks to do is cut through the noise and provide teams with a balanced view of what that player should be worth in the market, leaving all those factors to one side.
“That then gives a team a strong understanding of where they should be looking to start the bidding.”
The key thing is to find a realistic price tag for the player around which negotiation can be based. and Mcdonald which to understand the statistical value of the player – something provided by ETV (Estimated Transfer Value) which crunches the numbers to provide a more realistic price tag.
The ETV provides a number of examples of how its valuations differ from the number being talked around.
While Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag says he wants to keep midfielder Scott McTominay, but with Fulham bidding £20 million, the Scottish international, who came through United’s youth system, has a current ETV – £13.45 million.
Manchester United full back Aaron Wan-Bissaka has agreed terms with West Ham, although there are suggestions Inter Milan could swoop with United holding out for a fee of £18 million. Wan-Bissaka was not given a lengthy contract renewal, instead getting only a one-year extension in January meaning he could become a free agent in 2025. His ETV is £10.7 million.
On the buying side Manchester United look to be closer to ‘realistic’ market values.
Bayern Munich’s Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui were told before the summer market opened that neither were part of the German giants’ plans. With injury to Man Utd new boy Leny Yoro the club has bid for both defenders with a joint offer of about £60 million.
Current ETV value for De Ligt is £45 million and £18 million for Mazraoui.
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