July 8 – The last few weeks, with the tournament in full swing, have been a lot better. But I don’t think anyone could justifiably argue that Brazil’s first of three years in the global sporting spotlight has gone entirely to plan. Today in Belo Horizonte Brazilians must face up to the distinct possibility of more bad news: can their yellow-shirted warriors, shorn of their two best players, feasibly get the better of a typically well-drilled, composed and experienced Germany, or will the nation be obliged to accept that, for a second time, the most successful team in World Cup history has failed to capture the trophy on home soil?
Twelve years ago, Brazil and Germany clashed in the final, in what is, improbably, their only previous meeting in a World Cup.
Some Brazilians might see this as an encouraging omen: Brazil won 2-0 in Yokohama, outclassing their opponents in a comfortable victory that was never seriously in doubt.
Then, though, the key figures were Ronaldo, Brazil’s irresistible force, who had scored in five of his six previous games at the 2002 World Cup, and was intent on making up for the disappointment of 1998, and Oliver Kahn, the German goalkeeper, who had been his team’s best player throughout the tournament.
It is part of the pitiless nature of top-class sport that Kahn’s only error in more than 10 hours of World Cup play in two countries opened the door for Ronaldo, with trademark anticipation, to open the scoring.
Think now of the players who have replaced these two talismen in their respective countries’ 2014 teams: Fred, with the best will in the world, is no Ronaldo; Manuel Neuer, by contrast, is arguably even more commanding than the great Kahn.
Seen in this way, the message of 2002 is far less reassuring for the home team, particularly when you consider the wholesale reconstruction of the edifice of German football that has taken place in the interim.
Thankfully for Brazil fans, there are other factors that could be said to be tilted more in their team’s favour than 12 years ago.
One is home advantage, epitomised by the way the home crowds have taken to singing a supplementary verse of the national anthem with no musical accompaniment before kick-off.
The emotional energy released by this could be compared to the impact of the haka performed by the New Zealand All Blacks before their rugby matches – except, in Brazil’s case, it could be interpreted as the bulk of the stadium, and by extension the nation, laying down the challenge, rather than just a sports team.
If there is one side unlikely to be intimidated by such a manifestation of national unity and passion, though, you would have to say it is Germany.
Some, of course, have argued that playing at home has actually worked against Brazil by accentuating the extraordinary pressure that the team is under.
This, I think, is the one and only way in which the absence through injury of Neymar and suspension of Thiago Silva might be turned to the team’s advantage, since it may reduce the oceanic levels of expectation by a notch or two.
If anyone can exploit this successfully it is that gifted man-manager Luiz Felipe Scolari, who, along with German striker Miroslav Klose, is one of two members of Tuesday’s cast with direct experience of that first encounter in Japan.
The other area where Brazil is better off than in Yokohama is in midfield.
The 2002 World Cup was a competition in which the indefatigable Gilberto Silva often seemed to be manning the Brazilian engine-room alone.
Though in the final he was helped out by Kleberson, who came within a crossbar’s width of giving Brazil a first-half lead, it is hard to imagine that they would not quite simply be overrun by Messrs Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Kroos and Őzil.
This present Brazilian squad, by contrast, is unusually well-stocked with competent and energetic midfield operatives. And while none of them has the class of a Socrates or a Gerson, they are more than capable of breaking up play and getting in their opponents’ faces.
This largely explains why Brazil’s matches to date have been battles, with the team both committing and suffering more fouls than any other World Cup side.
Jogo bonito it is not, but more of the same will probably be required if Scolari’s men are to give themselves a chance of preventing Joachim Löw’s international thoroughbreds from shattering their World Cup dream.
Oh, and don’t believe for a moment that the loss of their stars has left Brazil, or Brazilians, resigned to their fate. As Scolari said, blinking back tears, after that 2002 showdown, “being second in Brazil is being last”.
David Owen worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 World Cup and London 2012. Owen’s Twitter feed can be accessed at www.twitter.com/dodo938.