CIES stats predict resurgence of Barca, Chelsea and AS Roma fortunes

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September 10 – The CIES Football Observatory has released its 2014/2015 season standings predictions for the big-5 European leagues. The data driven predictions have Bayern Munich and Paris St Germain retaining their league titles. But predicts new champions in England, Spain and Italy.

The data takes into account club ambition, players’ status and squad cohesion. These factors culminate to calculate the prospective performance of each team, and are determined as follows:

· Club Ambition: determined by the lengths of players’ contracts at the club and the ratio between players released during the transfer window and the status of new signings.

· Player’s Status: determined by the amount of minutes played last season in combination with their respective team’s overall results.

· Squad Cohesion: determined by the amount of minutes played by each person contracted to that team last season as well as the number of seasons played at the club.

The formula estimates that Chelsea will usurp Manchester City, who will finish 2nd, to win the Premier League, Liverpool will earn a strong 3rd and Arsenal will repeat in 4th. Manchester United and Everton will finish 5th and 6th respectively, leaving the last potential Europa Cup spot open to Tottenham, pending FA Cup and League Cup winners. Bad news for Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Queens Park Rangers though, for those three are the chosen victims to suffer relegation.

In La Liga, CIES predicts that FC Barcelona will regain their title, with Club Atlético de Madrid dropping to 3rd and Real Madrid finishing as runners-up. Paris St-Germain is expected to win Ligue 1, AS Roma to win Serie A, and Bayern München to beat Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga again.

Below are the rankings from the CIES Football Observatory’s Big-5 Weekly Post.

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