By Andrew Warshaw, chief correspondent
January 30 – The deadline for applications has passed. But the political manoeuvrings and strategic mind games have only just begun. Welcome to another tactical FIFA election process.
The next four months until the vote on May 29 promise to be full of rhetoric-filled statements, captivating intrigue and a good deal of skullduggery as Sepp Blatter endeavours to cement his power base while rival candidates battle for the moral high ground in an attempt to force him out.
Dethroning the seemingly impregnable Blatter will be a tough ask but with the candidates all but known pending an electoral vetting process that could take up two weeks, a pattern is already emerging in terms of how things might unfold.
At the centre of it is UEFA’s unspoken plan of how to get rid of Blatter after 17 years in the hotseat.
When UEFA president Michel Platini ruled out himself out, it seemed the Europeans had given up all hope and that Blatter’s re-election would be a mere formality.
That is probably still the case but the emergence of both Portuguese icon Luis Figo and Dutch Football Association chief Michael van Praag to join Prince Ali bin al-Hussein in the final days before the deadline has Platini’s hand all over it.
The strategy would appear to be one of safety in numbers. In other words a group of like-minded candidates spreading the gospel of transparency and attacking FIFA’s corruption-tainted image, with a view to picking off as many votes as possible and gradually building up enough collective support to bring about Blatter’s downfall.
Figo, van Praag and Prince Ali have all received nominations from various European federations to collect the five they need to go forward. That would tally with UEFA’s stance that they are not endorsing any one particular candidate though interestingly every one of Figo’s letters of support have come from within Europe.
Interestingly, too, van Praag says if he wins he would only serve one term. Is that a sign that if Blatter falls, Platini would then be in pole position to take over in four years’ time?
Don’t expect all of the contenders to still be there on election day. The likelihood is that at least one or two of them will drop out along the way, transferring their allegiance to whoever is ultimately delegated to carry the anti-Blatter flag into the ring in Zurich and try to deliver the knockout blow.
Blatter, of course, may well already have enough guaranteed votes by then – particularly if Africa and a majority of Asia stay with him – to win hands down. But if it ultimately comes down to a head to head contest, rather than one of vote-splitting that would play into Blatter’s hands, the veteran Swiss may not find things quite so comfortable.
The fly in the ointment could be Jerome Champagne. Right up to deadline time Champagne was playing his cards close to his chest, stressing that under the rules FIFA allowed time for postal nominations to be submitted and therefore declining to name his five supporting associations.
The Frenchman is playing a canny game of waiting for the electoral committee to complete its business. But if he is not named on the ballot paper, it would ask serious questions about why he didn’t admit beforehand that he couldn’t generate enough backing.
Knowing Champagne, he knows exactly what he is doing. He was, after all, the first of all the candidates to launch a proper manifesto and has sent out regular newsletters about how he would modernise FIFA. But there is a nagging feeling that what he wants just as much as being president is to somehow get back into the belly of FIFA, from where he was unceremoniously ousted over a decade ago.
Of all the candidates, Champagne has been the one who has consistently refused to criticise the present FIFA president. That should tell you quite a lot. There is no love lost between Champagne and Platini, his compatriot. Working alongside Blatter again would give the former the perfect platform from which to give UEFA the bloodiest of noses.
On his own, Champagne will surely be fighting a losing battle. A Blatter-Champagne alliance, perhaps subtle at first, could be a different matter. Hold on to your hats.
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