By Mark Baber
October 2 – Comparatively poor results by English clubs in the Champions League last season and a disappointing opening to the Champions League groups stage have led to a spate of suggestions England may lose their fourth Champions League place to Italy. However analysis suggests this is unlikely and English club performances in European club football over the past five seasons have been second only to the Spanish.
The commonly held view promoted by members of the football commentariat is that English clubs “will lose a fourth Champions League place if they perform as poorly in Europe as they did last season.”
While this may theoretically be true, the figures suggest last season was an unusually good one for Italian clubs and an unusually bad one for English clubs.
The below table shows the coefficients which are used to determine the number of clubs allocated to each country:
Clubs are awarded points for wins and draws and for making progress in the Europa League and Champions League. These points are then divided by the number of clubs representing each country to calculate the average score – with the total of these average scores over five seasons being decisive.
Whatever happens this season, the Premier League will have four teams in the 2016/17 Champions League, but if Italy were to beat England’s coefficient score by 3.095 points this season they would move ahead of England and grab the extra Champions League place for 2017/18.
Even the prospect of this happening has led to a blame game with various clubs and even English FA president Greg Dyke on the receiving end.
However, if we look at the figures for the last five seasons (including this one to date) we find English clubs have earned more points, according to the UEFA country co-efficient system, than any country other than Spain. What is more, more clubs have contributed to this success (16) than is the case in any other country.
The tables below show the number of points earned by each club in England, Italy, Germany, Spain and France from the 2011-12 season to date and the percentage of the national total each club’s performance represents.
Italy are well behind England in total points and only within striking distance on the average coefficient as they have had less clubs competing on Europe. Last season was the best season for Italian clubs and the worst for English clubs during this period, and is unlikely to be repeated, particularly with Sampdoria having been eliminated, Roma not exactly setting the world on fire in their group and England already enjoying an early advantage in this year’s competition.
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