By Andrew Warshaw in Zurich
February 25 – Deja vu, groundhog day. Same city, same conference hall. The difference of course is that this time the great survivor has no longer survived. Nevertheless the pantomime, even without its most notorious villain, goes on. The question is, which of the actors will emerge victorious? Anyone who tells you for definite that they know who is going to win the FIFA presidential election Friday afternoon and by exactly how many votes – and quite a few so-called experts are giving it a try – are being somewhat self-indulgent.
History shows that voters notoriously change their minds at the last minute and even the most savvy can’t be certain how the puzzle will piece together.
“Quite frankly it’s a guessing game,” confessed Michael van Praag, the highly respected head of the Dutch FA who was a contender himself nine months ago before pulling out late on.
With Shaikh Salman picking up most of Asia and Gianni Infantino securing the bulk of Europe, almost everyone in the know as a light but persistent snowfall covered Switzerland’s banking capital on Thursday, seemed to be placing their money on at least two rounds of voting, with the African factor being pivotal.
African football’s hierarchy may have called for a bloc vote for Shaikh Salman but having spent a good few hours in the company of African delegates on Thursday, it was abundantly clear that there is a split. While most do back the Asian football chief, a number of federations are planning to vote for Prince Ali bin al-Hussein though the figure of 27 cited by his number one supporter, Liberian football chief Musa Bility, seems ridiculously over-optimistic.
But then so does Infantino’s claim that he has half of Africa on his side. “There is a silent distrust of UEFA,” one federation chief told Insideworldfootball. “You could put a puppy dog in front of some Africans and they would vote for it rather than a European. I’d say 80 percent of us will vote for Salman.”
If the puppy reference sounds a trifle far-fetched, it gives you an indication of how strong feelings are going into Friday’s ballot to replace Sepp Blatter who, like Michel Platini – a shoo-in as his successor until both were banned – will be watching frustratingly from the sidelines.
Such is the determination to get Salman over the line, notwithstanding the mountainous funding benefits Infantino has offered, that African football’s administration is understood to have handed out a three-page document to delegates at their closed CAF congress on Thursday outlining the Bahraini royal’s strengths.
“They should look at my track record as president of a confederation that went through difficult times from 2011-13,” Sheikh Salman told Insidesorldfootball during a whistle-stop rallying visit to CAF members 24 hours before the vote.
But will it be enough? Even if he doesn’t have half of Africa, Infantino may well have half of CONCACAF’s 35 votes – and possible more in what seems certain to be another split vote. Making the whole caboozle simply too close to call.
Prince Ali still thinks he can avoid becoming only the second candidate ever to lose two elections. If he goes down, he will go down fighting. Then it becomes of a matter of how and to whom his votes are transferred. Infantino or Salman? That’s when the guessing game begins.
Yet could the principled – some might say at times foolhardy – Jordanian actually upset the odds? Late into the night on the eve of the ballot, Prince Ali, who has been relentlessly campaigning for fair play at the election, got the perfect confidence boost when the influential US soccer federation came off the fence to endorse his candidacy, prompting understandable excitement in his camp and the growing belief that it could have a knock-on effect.
It could ultimately come down to the outsiders and where their votes might go either after round one or if they withdraw beforehand. At the exclusive and now-infamous Baur au Lac hotel in downtown Zurich earlier this week, Prince Ali’s representatives were seen locked in talks with Tokyo Sexwale as if some kind of deal was being plotted. The pair get on well.
Jerome Champagne, who is probably more knowledgeable about football than any other contender, seems to acknowledge that he won’t win though he has too much pride to admit it publically. He couldn’t resist taking a shot at Infantino’s globe-trotting campaign during Thursday’s final lobbying visits to the confederations.
“I did not have a private jet to visit you, take a photo and then tweet and say I have got the endorsement,” the former French diplomat who spent 11 years at FIFA quipped.
All the candidates will make a 15-minute address to the 207 voting members before the vote takes place towards the end of a long agenda. Whoever ends up taking over from Blatter, who ruled for almost 18 years, will inherit a very different role with the focus very much on keeping the organisation clean after the spate of indictments in the United States for racketeering, money-laundering and bribery.
Which in a sense makes the implementing the far-reaching reform package that is on the table much more important than selecting a successor to Blatter in order to end the culture of corruption that has been laid bare by American and Swiss prosecutors.
Term limits of 12 years, stricter integrity checks, a new supervisory council including six seats reserved for women, and independent annual financial audits of each and every federation are just some of the measures being voted on. FIFA’s executive committee has urged the membership to back the reforms. American prosecutors doubtless want a yes vote too and more than few finger nails will be bitten in anticipation of this separate vote which requires 75% support for the package to pass.
Rejecting it seems unthinkable given the current climate of mistrust and ridicule. Issa Hayatou, who ends his stand-in role as FIFA president, says it is “absolutely imperative” to push them through. But don’t bank on it. This after all, is FIFA where self-interest sadly dominates the political landscape. It really is a day of reckoning for the 112-year old organisation, one which is creaking at the seams and needs putting back together before it collapses completely and quite possibly irrevocably.
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