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The moment of truth is fast approaching.
On Friday (May 28), 13 UEFA Executive Committee members will gather to select the host country of Euro 2016, the next but one European football championship, at Geneva’s Espace Hippomène.
Three countries - France, Italy and Turkey - are in the running, any one of which could put on a more than adequate show.
From what I gather, though, Italy - shortlisted for the 2012 tournament won by Poland and Ukraine and home of Internazionale, the newly-crowned European club champions - is once again likely to be disappointed.
The battle between France and Turkey, the two remaining candidates, looks too close to call.
Indeed, should one of the committee members abstain, the outcome could even be determined via the casting vote of the man set to chair the meeting - Geoff Thompson, English football’s top administrator in international football.
Only last week, Thompson, a former Football Association chairman, took over as chairman of England’s 2018 World Cup bid following the resignation of Lord Triesman.
It has been reported that UEFA’s recent evaluation report has led to France emerging as clear favourite.
Having ploughed through the rather flat 60-page document, I can see why people have picked up this impression.
Certainly, the sole occasion, so far as I could see, when the report’s authors departed from the ultra-sober auditors’ -speak in which the bulk of the document is couched - was where, on its very last page, they described the French bid’s proposed location for an official dinner in Paris as “fantastic”.
Yet the report did not leave me with the impression that the French bid is utterly bullet-proof.
For example, it noted that “some of the proposed stadiums, including the one for the final, have inadequate space around the stadium to fully meet the UEFA Euro 2016 requirements to include the hospitality villages and broadcast compound within the security perimeter”.
It said that, “Except in Paris/Saint-Denis, the current level of secured accommodation (three to five-star) clearly does not meet UEFA’s requirements, despite the major commitment of the main hotel chains operating in France”.
And it asserted that “Confirmation would be required that the proposed level of private funding [for stadium infrastructure investment] had been secured”.
As the document details, the €1.7 billion to be invested in stadium infrastructure under the French bid would come from private and public sources.
“At this stage the French public sector has guaranteed 39 per cent of the total investment (€662 million)…, with the remainder financed by the private sector (€1.042 billion), of which €501 million has been secured.”
By way of comparison, the Turkish bid envisages a total of €1 billion invested in stadium infrastructure, with the Turkish Government guaranteeing “100 per cent of the estimated total investment”.
If UEFA opted for Turkey, however, it would be, in part, a vote of faith in the country’s ability to deliver a colossal €27 billion general infrastructure upgrade, covering transportation, telecommunications, hotels, health and education.
As the report says: “The accessibility of the venues and travel times between them would very much depend on the realisation of the numerous projects proposed.”
“Without these new ground transport links, particularly high-speed rail links, the ability of Bursa, Eskisehir, Konya and Kayseri to host UEFA Euro 2016 would be at great risk.”
On the other hand, the opportunity a Turkish tournament would present to captivate a young, big and relatively new market should hold great appeal for UEFA.
One key factor in Friday’s outcome is likely to be whether the governing body is ready to back what many would perceive as another adventurous choice when it has encountered unexpected problems in Ukraine, one of the 2012 co-hosts.
UEFA President Michel Platini warned this month that Germany or Hungary could be invited to stage Euro 2012 games if Ukraine failed to meet targets for stadium redevelopment.
UEFA is expected to decide by the end of next month whether it should strip Ukraine of co-hosting rights.
If France were to win, it is possible that Euro 2016 matches would be played in Nancy, the city in Lorraine where Platini, who was born in another Lorraine town called Joeuf, began his senior playing career.
The UEFA President, along with fellow Executive Committee members Şenes Erzik of Turkey and Giancarlo Abete of Italy, will take no part in Friday’s deliberations and is not entitled to vote.
Under the unnecessarly complicated process, the first round of voting will see the three bids ranked, with third place getting one point, second place two points and first place “three points plus a bonus two points”.
The bid with the lowest score is then eliminated, with the 13 eligible voters subsequently backing one or other of the two survivors in the second round.
Platini is expected to announce the winner at about 1pm Swiss time.
David Owen is a specialist sports journalist who worked for 20 years for the Financial Times in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup and is now freelancing, including covering last year’s Beijing Olympics. An archive of Owen’s material may be found by Twitter users at www.twitter.com/dodo938