By Mark Baber
April 7 – The latest CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report includes statistics showing that young forwards progress a bit faster in terms numbers of appearances than young midfielders, faster than defenders and a lot faster than young goalkeepers on average.
Titled ‘Spotting Future Stars’, the report then introduces the concept of “experience capital” (based on number of games played) and then the authors make the bold suggestion that clubs might want to replace or supplement the usual scouting process by employing CIES researchers to spot young talent on the basis of the number of games played.
The CIES report asserts that: “Playing numerous games during the first years of a professional career is an essential condition in order to be able to compete in the top level leagues worldwide.”
According to the data-set CIES is using, “Current big-5 league footballers played on average 93.9 domestic league matches since the start of their professional career up until the semester preceding their 23rd birthday. The average number of matches played is 11.1 before 19 years of age, 26.8 before 20, 46.9 before 21, 69.7 before 22 and 93.9 before 23. B-team games are also included.”
Interestingly the researchers find that: “Among players aged 23 or over currently under contract with big-5 league clubs, only 5.4% have always played in teams taking part in these championships between the start of the professional career and the semester preceding their 23rd birthday.”
Breaking down the statistics by position, CIES finds: “The percentage of footballers having always played in the top leagues is particularly low among goalkeepers (3.3%). For other positions, this figure is between 5 and 6%. Even by including footballers who always played for big-5 league clubs but participated in B-team matches, the proportion of those who spent their entire career in the most competitive championships is low: between 11.6% for forwards and 18.7% for midfielders.”
The authors suggest that the role of leagues outside the big-5 “suggests that the optimisation of the environment within which to promote talents goes hand in hand with partnerships and strategic alliances between teams of different levels.”
The report authors introducing the notion of “experience capital” which “refers to matches played in adult championships up until 23 years of age.” It is unclear from the report whether and how experience in different Leagues is weighted, although a hint is made in assessing Portuguese and Brazilian top flight experience as at the same level.
In any case, by assessing the numbers of appearances in various cohorts, the authors attempt to identify the players “with the highest values for experience capital per position and year of birth” and suggest that amongst those identified will be “several players that are likely to leave their mark on the history of football.”
Inside the big-5 the authors identify about 60 promising young players including Harry Kane and Paul Pogba, Outside the big-5 they mention a further 25 bright prospects who have racked up the appearances at various clubs.
According to the authors, the “experience capital method” provides the basis for the setting up of an efficient talent spotting system, allowing teams to “outflank the competition even if they do not have a fully-fledged recruitment structure.” The CIES “research team is at the service of clubs interested in finding out more about the practical modalities of implementing a talent spotting system of this kind.”
See the full report at http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/mr/mr14/en/
Contact the writer of this story at moc.l1734909141labto1734909141ofdlr1734909141owedi1734909141sni@r1734909141ebab.1734909141kram1734909141